Modeling Future Land Use Development: A Lithuanian Case

Effective management decisions regarding greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions may be hampered by the lack of scientific tools for modeling future land use change. This study addresses methodological principles development scenario assumed in processes GHG accounting and management. Associated policy implications Lithuania are also discussed. Data on uses, available from National Forest Inventory (NFI) collected use, change forestry (LULUCF) sector country, as well freely geographic information, were tested an input country. The was implemented using TerrSet Land Change Modeler. Calibration approach historical data indicated that types important LULUCF predicted with accuracy above 80% during a five-year period into future, while prediction forest built-up 96% or more. Based several scenarios tested, it will accumulate CO2, type contributing most to CO2 absorption. Key measures improve balance carbon stock changes suggested afforestation abandoned unused agricultural prevention conversion grassland producing land.